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Understanding "Splitting the Vote" — How to Make Your Vote Count on April 28, 2025

As Canada approaches the federal election on April 28, 2025, many Canadians find themselves facing a familiar dilemma: Should I vote for the party I truly believe in, or should I vote strategically to prevent a party I don’t support from winning? This is the classic challenge of splitting the vote—and in this blog post, we’ll unpack what that means, how it affects election outcomes, and how you can cast an informed and impactful vote.



What Does "Splitting the Vote" Mean?


Splitting the vote occurs when voters who generally align ideologically (e.g., centre-right or centre-left) divide their support among multiple similar parties, which can allow a less popular party—often one they oppose—to win due to a divided opposition. For example, if three parties with similar views each receive 20% of the vote, a fourth party with only 30% could win, even though most voters wanted something else.


This concern becomes especially pressing in Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system, where the candidate with the most votes wins, regardless of whether they secured a majority.


 

Defining the Political Landscape in 2025


In the 2025 federal election, the three major parties expected to form government (or be part of a coalition/minority arrangement) are:


  • Liberal Party of Canada

  • Conservative Party of Canada

  • New Democratic Party (NDP)


In addition, a number of smaller parties and independents are also running. While these parties are unlikely to form government, they can play an important role in the democratic conversation.


These include:


  • Bloc Québécois (Quebec only)

  • Green Party of Canada

  • People's Party of Canada (PPC)

  • United Party of Canada

  • Various Independent Candidates and Regional Parties


These smaller parties often speak to specific issues or underrepresented perspectives—and they absolutely deserve your attention. But how can you vote for them without “wasting” your vote or accidentally helping a party you oppose?


 

Know Your Riding – Do Your Homework


The answer lies in knowing your riding.


Each federal riding—or constituency—has its own unique voting history. Some are “safe seats” where one party wins by a landslide every election. Others are “swing ridings” where just a few hundred votes can flip the result.


You can view the results of the last federal election by visiting the official Elections Canada website:👉 https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2021app/home.html


 

What Should Voters Do?


If You Live in a “Safe Seat”:


  • Review past results. If the winning candidate won by a large margin, you can confidently vote for the smaller party or independent that most aligns with your values.

  • Even if they don’t win, your vote sends a powerful message—and can affect party funding, media attention, and political discourse.


What Is a Safe Seat?


A safe seat is a riding where one political party consistently wins by a large margin in every election. These seats are considered “safe” for the incumbent party because the chances of another party winning are very low. Voters in these ridings often feel their vote won’t change the outcome—but this also makes it a good place to vote for a smaller party to send a message or support a cause you believe in.


Example: If a candidate won by more than 20% of the vote in the last election, it’s likely a safe seat.


Safe Seats in Manitoba (2021 Federal Election)


Here is a visual representation of the Safe Seats in Manitoba from the 2021 federal election. It shows the margin of victory in percentage for each riding, clearly highlighting just how dominant the winning parties were. This makes it easy for voters in these areas to understand that they can confidently vote for smaller parties or independents without risking the outcome they wish to avoid.


1. Brandon–Souris

  • Conservative (Larry Maguire): 27,122 votes (61.39%)

  • Liberal (Linda Branconnier): 7,565 votes (17.14%)

  • Margin: 19,557 votes (~44.25%)

  • Verdict: Very safe Conservative seat

2. Portage–Lisgar

  • Conservative (Candice Bergen): 25,342 votes (52.49%)

  • PPC (Solomon Wiebe): 10,598 votes (21.95%)

  • Margin: 14,744 votes (~30.54%)

  • Verdict: Strong Conservative hold, despite PPC surge

3. Provencher

  • Conservative (Ted Falk): 25,973 votes (51.79%)

  • Liberal (Trevor Kirczenow): 11,000 votes (21.95%)

  • Margin: 14,973 votes (~29.84%)

  • Verdict: Safe Conservative riding

4. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman

  • Conservative (James Bezan): 26,186 votes (55.73%)

  • NDP (Beatrice Bruske): 9,666 votes (20.58%)

  • Margin: 16,520 votes (~35.15%)

  • Verdict: Safe Conservative seat

5. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski

  • NDP (Niki Ashton): 10,278 votes (42.27%)

  • Conservative (Charlotte Larocque): 5,697 votes (23.42%)

  • Liberal (Rebecca Chartrand): 4,747 votes (19.54%)

  • Margin: ~17-19% over second place

  • Verdict: Safe NDP riding


What This Means for Voters in Safe Seats


If you live in one of these ridings:

  • Your vote won’t likely change the outcome of the riding.

  • You can feel free to vote for a smaller party, independent, or your conscience, knowing it won’t “split the vote” in a way that alters the local result.

  • Supporting a smaller party can send a message, strengthen its national support, and help it secure future resources and visibility.




 

If You Live in a “Swing Seat”:


  • Look at the margin of victory from the last election.

  • If two parties were neck-and-neck, your vote has the power to tip the balance.

  • In such ridings, voting strategically for the party most likely to defeat a party you oppose may be more effective than voting strictly along ideological lines.


What Is a Swing Seat?


A swing seat (also known as a marginal riding) is a riding where the winning candidate’s margin of victory was very small—often just a few hundred or a few thousand votes. These seats can “swing” from one party to another from one election to the next. Voters in swing seats have a high level of influence on the national result, especially in close elections.


Example: If the top two candidates were separated by only 5% or less in the last election, that’s a swing seat.


Swing Seats in Manitoba (2021 Federal Election)


Here is the visual for Swing Seats in Manitoba from the 2021 federal election. It highlights the ridings with narrower margins of victory—particularly Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley, which was decided by just over 1%. Voters in these areas have a greater influence on the outcome and may want to consider strategic voting to ensure their preferred party wins.


Here are the Manitoba ridings with close races:


  1. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley

    • Conservative (Marty Morantz): 18,111 votes (40.00%)

    • Liberal (Doug Eyolfson): 17,651 votes (38.98%)

    • Margin: 460 votes (1.02%)​

  2. Kildonan–St. Paul

    • Conservative (Raquel Dancho): 18,375 votes (41.81%)

    • Liberal (Mary-Jane Bennett): 12,934 votes (29.43%)

    • NDP (Emily Clark): 10,313 votes (23.47%)

    • Margin between 1st and 2nd: 5,441 votes (12.38%)​

  3. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital

    • Liberal (Dan Vandal): 19,908 votes (43.78%)

    • Conservative (Shola Agboola): 12,749 votes (28.04%)

    • NDP (Meghan Waters): 9,767 votes (21.48%)

    • Margin between 1st and 2nd: 7,159 votes (15.74%)​

  4. Winnipeg South Centre

    • Liberal (Jim Carr): 22,214 votes (45.55%)

    • Conservative (Joyce Bateman): 13,566 votes (27.82%)

    • NDP (Julia Riddell): 10,064 votes (20.64%)

    • Margin between 1st and 2nd: 8,648 votes (17.73%)​en.wikipedia.org

  5. Winnipeg South





These ridings had relatively close contests, indicating that voter choices in these areas can significantly influence the election outcome.​


 

Final Thoughts


Your vote is your voice—and it matters.


Whether you’re voting to help form government, support a bold new voice, or make a statement, your choice matters most when it’s informed. Know your riding. Know your options. And most importantly, vote.


If you need help navigating the Elections Canada website or figuring out the dynamics in your riding, reach out—we’re happy to help.


 

Haven’t Received Your Voter Information Card?


By now, every eligible voter in Canada should have received their Voter Information Card in the mail. This card tells you where and when to vote and confirms that you’re registered.

If you have not received your card, don’t worry—you can still vote!


Here’s what to do:


  1. Check your registration online at Elections Canada – Registration.

  2. If you're not registered or your information is incorrect, you can register or update it online.

  3. You can also call Elections Canada directly at 1-800-463-6868 to speak with an agent.

  4. If needed, you can register at the polls on voting day—just bring proper ID. A full list of accepted ID is available here.


Don’t wait until the last minute—confirm your information today and make sure your voice is heard on April 28, 2025.




 
 
 
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